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At first, Trump seemed to embrace a firm stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering warnings of "serious consequences" during the summer should Vladimir Putin persisted hindering ceasefire negotiations, the former president eventually enacted major restrictions on the Russian biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action seriously hindered the Russian leader's ability to finance his aggression in the region.

Yet, with his latest 28-point peace plan for the conflict, that was created by American and Russian officials excluding Ukrainian or EU involvement, the former president has clearly gone back to his Russia-friendly stance.

Benefiting Aggression

The former president's initiative would effectively favor the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while putting the country's political freedom in peril. Despite strong statements that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", much of the proposal in reality compromise that same independence. Seen as a Kremlin dream would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his corporate past, Trump seems to view the situation in Ukraine as a basic territorial dispute, implying handing Putin a section of Ukraine's soil will appease the president. Yet, Putin's military campaign is not merely about occupying a destroyed region of industrial-devastated area in Ukraine's east. It is about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's apparent desire to destroy it so it ceases to acts as an enticing standard for the Russian citizens of the democratic leadership that Putin's growing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Territorial Concessions

While maintaining in place the presently divided regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would force the nation to surrender all of Donetsk province. In addition to favoring Russia with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to seize in exceeding a ten years of conflict, this giveaway would make Ukrainian defenses severely weakened.

The area is the location of Ukraine's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the entrenched defensive positions that constitute a key obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these positions, giving Russian forces a clear way to Kyiv if he subsequently decide to restart the hostilities.

Armed Forces Reductions

Then, in a action that would enable renewed conflict simpler for Russia, Trump would require Ukraine to cut the numbers of its armed forces from their existing large number troops to a maximum of 600,000. Importantly, the initiative sets no equivalent constraints on the invading army.

In what appears as a gesture to Putin's attempts to portray Ukraine's legitimate government as Nazis, Trump's proposal asserts: "All Nazi doctrine and practices must be condemned and forbidden." As if to underscore this element, it requires that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a peace deal. At the same time, the proposal places no obligation that the Russian leader endanger his dictatorship by holding democratic processes in his own country.

Security Guarantees

Admittedly, the initiative has the Russian Federation commit not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "establish in legislation its position of non-aggression towards European nations and Ukraine". However considering that the Russian leadership has violated comparable agreements in the past – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government pledged to honor Ukraine's borders in exchange for giving up its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a ceasefire and a handback of occupied land in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – why should anyone trust Putin this time?

For this reason Ukraine has been so adamant on international security guarantees. Although the plan warns of a "immediate unified armed reaction" in case Russia resume its aggression, and includes that "Ukraine will receive dependable security guarantees", the specifics include vague to troubling. The plan would not only prevent Ukraine accession to NATO but also prohibit Nato members from deploying troops on Ukrainian territory, thus preventing the reassurance force, reportedly headed by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to deter Putin from replenishing his weakened military, rearming, and reinvading.

International Response

An additional side agreement reportedly would provide Ukraine with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any subsequent "significant, deliberate, and continuous armed attack" by Russia on the country "shall be regarded as an act of war endangering the tranquility of the allied countries." This implies a military response. However different from a powerful Ukrainian military – the nation's primary deterrent against renewed hostilities – the effectiveness of the side agreement would hinge on the commitment of Nato leaders, including Trump, to respond with force to Russia's attacks, an action they have {not