🔗 Share this article

The direst possible consequences of the global heating for the UK have been detailed by scientists, including a blistering 4C jump in mean temperatures to a 6.5-foot rise in ocean levels. A separate possibility predicts a plunge of 6C in temperature following the shutdown of crucial Atlantic Ocean currents, which would severely impact agriculture and energy needs.

Possible Events, Not Predictions

These impacts, some of which are linked to irreversible climate shifts, are viewed as improbable but plausible. The researchers explained that these projections plugged a hole in risk assessment that had left the UK not ready for worst-case results.

"The worst-case scenarios we have mapped should not be seen as certainties, but they are credible," said the lead researcher who led the study. "Britain has been formulating policy without the tools to assess catastrophic outcomes. We've now given decision-makers what they need to get ready for future conditions they pray never occur, but dare not dismiss."

A Spectrum of Harsh Climate Scenarios

A further series of dire projections sets out the projected severity of harsh climate between now and the year 2100. These show that thermometer readings could rocket in certain periods by up to 6C higher than average, while rainfall could be triple normal levels.

The likelihood of the worst-case outcomes coming to pass cannot be precisely determined due to unknown factors about what steps will be enacted to address global warming and how the planet's climate will react. This research was described as similar to national security risk assessments or resilience checks for financial systems.

Major Scenario Highlights

• 4C Temperature Rise: Planetary heating rising well above 4C by 2100 could happen if emissions cuts breaks down or if strong feedback loops including the Amazon rainforest becoming a net carbon source emit its huge repository of carbon. This would lead to severe and lengthy heatwaves and dry spells plaguing the UK in summer.
• Atlantic Current Collapse: A key circulation system, the North Atlantic current, is weakening and losing stability due to ocean warming. A complete failure starting around 2030 would lead to a 6C cooling in the UK. "Agriculture would face immense difficulties and water supplies would be drastically changed," explained the lead researcher.
• Sudden Ocean Inundation: A increase of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could occur if ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctic collapse rapidly, submerging seaside communities. Differing from the other scenarios, this possibility is already recognized by coastal engineers.
• Pollution Paradox: Temperatures could also be pushed higher by about 0.75C if pollution from industry is sharply cut. This unexpected result occurs because tiny specks from industrial activity block solar radiation from warming the ground.

Preparing for the Worst

The severe models could be utilized in planning the construction of long-term infrastructure, such as new towns, power generation facilities and flood defences. Understanding these climate risks could also accelerate the drive to slash fossil fuel emissions.

The analysis developed the severe projections using a combination of past data and records, digital projections and established principles. These outcomes exclude potential global problems such as the devastation of food supplies and increased conflict.

This work was commissioned as part of a official risk assessment framework. Independent analyses have cautioned that too little consideration was being given to low‐likelihood but high‐impact risks.

The government's climate advisors has recommended that the UK needs to "adapt to 2C" and evaluate the threats for 4C. Previous adaptation plans have been described as being "inadequate" by some observers.

A government spokesperson noted: "The climate emergency is at the heart of this government’s agenda, both preparing for impacts and establishing itself as a low-carbon economy. It is crucial that the UK is ready for the impacts."