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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would constitute guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.