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Only 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – not just who would win overall, but precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, devoted more than ten years in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of local celebrity this year for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win although missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange possesses a talent for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, running from one neighborhood to another area to a third locale, where he predicted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, certain media outlets and financial newspapers outrank the mainstream paper” in readership and the majority of electors leaned toward the independent, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Unexpected Results

How was your election night?

It was necessary since they were dropping around 200,000 ballots into the tally frequently! I felt a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by 12 points, but came large groups of votes added after that and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world where yesterday went kind of poorly for Mamdani, where Cuomo would have basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But the winner added half a million votes to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he succeeded. He went out and massively expanded his support from the primary.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Plus he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that the left long aimed for: multiracial, youthful, tenants and residents struggling with costs

Additionally, there were some supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It is a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for Trump last year backed the progressive now. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I thought it could exceed 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Currently you would say he’s favored to surpass half. He has just over 50% but there’s still around 200K ballots uncounted at that time. So it’s not it’s definitive, but I believe it’s likely, and I wish he does because then none can claim Sliwa was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any area. Including one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump area. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo held Caucasian districts, affluent zones and devout communities, and plus gained many conservatives on the island who had a high participation. I believe occurred significant tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened before Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome unless Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for Mamdani overwhelming in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents all went for Cuomo. So there existed a little resistance. However overall, mostly the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani won – he was polling between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on if Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he did?

There are neighborhoods with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – like specific locales – where he performed strongly. However in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. And also, you have Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were pretty staunchly supportive. So it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters here, but Mamdani did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from the left hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be additional examples – candidates will come from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

However I think that every city in the US could develop their own commie corridor. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – because youth reside there, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities we face.