🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."