From Grudging Respect to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force announces its plan to rule indefinitely.

That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was meant to unfold: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for this long.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than international law.”