Daily Killings in the nation Fall 37% Under President Sheinbaum, According to Official Figures

The mean figure of daily murders per month in the country has decreased by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per recent government statistics. However, public safety specialists have cautioned that homicide figures might not signal better national security.

Marked Drop in Per-Day Numbers

There was an average of almost 55 killings a day in last November compared with nearly 87 when the President began the presidential office in the previous September. This data was provided by the head of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we have seen over these past months is very important,” the President said, adding that the previous month the smallest number of homicides were recorded for any single November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Strategy

Violent cartel infighting, combined with the administration's highly military campaigns to combat the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent years. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s official data agency.

That meant Mexico a murder figure more than four times greater than the United States. However, homicides have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security plan for an seemingly more pronounced drop in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the head of state stated: “There is a strategy, there is oversight of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking town by town in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s security strategy include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Increased coordination between government departments.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Concerns

However, public safety researchers warned that using murder numbers to paint a picture of improved security was misleading. This is especially true given the increase in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“It would be positive information if this was a drop, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the murder numbers and think: ‘Alright, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

As reported by the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the identical period the previous year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer useful for gauging the context of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the resources or the will to properly identify and categorize remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month means of everyday homicides was similarly problematic because it could obscure periods when there were notably spiking numbers of murders.

“Employing the daily average makes surges of violent crime less visible,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

An area where the administration can highlight the success of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact offenses, according to government figures. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely politically advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger

But in spite of these efforts, Mexico remains plagued by high violence, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-fueled conflict. Recently there was a prominent killing of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the last year.

A short time later, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the country to express their frustration at graft and cartel violence.

“The government presents [data] in a way to construct a picture of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly successful, socially it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst said.